| Apartment List reports rents down 0.2% month over month and 1.4% year over year, vacancies at a record 7.3%, and lease-up times hitting 41 days nationwide. Overall rent trends ● The national median rent fell 0.2% month over month in January and now stands at $1,353. ● January marked the sixth consecutive month of rent declines and the fourth straight winter with a pronounced seasonal dip. ● National rents are down 1.4% year over year, extending a stretch of slightly negative annual rent growth that has lasted more than two years. ● The national median rent has fallen 6.2% from its 2022 peak, reflecting a sustained correction following the pandemic-era surge. Monthly and annual rent changes ● Rent declines continued but moderated compared to prior months. ○ Month-over-month comparison: ■ January 2026: -0.2% ■ January 2025: -0.1% ○ Year-over-year comparison: ■ January 2026: -1.4% ● The -1.4% annual reading is the weakest year-over-year rent growth since August 2023. ● Despite recent declines, rents remain elevated over the longer term. ○ Current rents are 18% higher than at the end of 2020. National rent levels in dollar terms ● The national median rent is $1,353, down $20 compared to January 2025. ● Since peaking in mid-2022, median rents have declined by: ○ 5.9% nationally ○ $89 per month in dollar terms Seasonal shifts in rent growth ● Seasonal patterns have shifted compared to the pre-pandemic norm. ○ Historically, May was the peak month for rent growth. ○ Over the past three years, March has become the peak month. ● Rent declines are now beginning earlier in the year. ○ Prices now tend to start falling in August instead of September. ● Winter slowdowns have been deeper since 2022 due to elevated multifamily suppl Multifamily vacancy rate ● The national multifamily vacancy rate now sits at 7.3%. ● This is the highest vacancy rate recorded by Apartment List since tracking began in 2017. ● Vacancy pressure reflects a collision between new supply and sluggish demand. ○ Multifamily construction peaked recently but remains elevated relative to historical norms. Multifamily construction pipeline ● New supply remains historically high, even as the construction wave begins to crest. ○ 2024 deliveries: over 600,000 new multifamily units, the highest annual total since 1986. ○ 2025 deliveries: approximately 500,000 units. ○ 2026 outlook: fewer units than 2025, but still slightly above the long-run average. ● Elevated supply continues to limit landlords’ pricing power as the market absorbs new inventory. Time on market (list-to-lease) ● Units now take an average of 41 days to lease after being listed. ● This represents a new record high for the index. ○ Year-over-year comparison: ■ January 2026: 41 days ■ January 2025: 37 days ● Time on market has more than doubled since summer 2021. ○ Summer 2021 average: 18 days ● Longer lease-up times align with higher vacancies and negative rent growth. Geographic rent trends ● Rent declines are concentrated primarily in the Sun Belt. ○ Of 54 large metros with populations over 1 million: ■ 39 saw month-over-month rent declines. ■ 32 saw year-over-year rent declines. ● Southern and Mountain West markets account for most annual rent drops. ● Many Northeast, Midwest, and select West Coast metros continue to post positive annual growth. Metro-level highlights ● Austin, TX shows the softest rental conditions among large metros. ○ Year-over-year rent change: -6.3% ○ Decline from 2022 peak: more than -20% ○ Austin also leads large metros in new-home permitting, underscoring the impact of supply. ● Other metros with steep declines often overlap with high permitting activity. ○ Examples include Denver, Phoenix, San Antonio, Tampa, and Raleigh. ● The strongest rent growth is occurring in fewer, more supply-constrained markets. ○ Virginia Beach, VA: +5% year over year, the fastest growth nationally. ○ San Jose, CA and San Francisco, CA also rank in the top three, supported by AI-driven tech hiring. ○ Midwest metros such as Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis continue to post steady positive growth. Market outlook ● Multifamily conditions remain soft entering 2026. ● Negative year-over-year rent growth persists alongside rising vacancies and longer lease-up times. ● While the construction wave is slowing, demand-side risks remain. ○ Labor market weakness and broader economic uncertainty could prolong absorption of new units. ● A meaningful shift in rental conditions will depend on whether demand strengthens as supply growth cools. |
Rental Trends
