Trusting the Economic Statistics on Real Estate

A recent article in Bloomberg News titled “Can You Trust Statistics on U.S. Housing”  points out that the stats generated by the government are actually more like looking in the rear-view mirror due to the nature of the process of buying a house which can take months of preparation, actually viewing properties and then the negotiating and closing.

I would add that certain stats purport to measure the same thing, but have different methodologies. You definitely need to know the basis for measurement. By the time the numbers show a definitive uptick indicative of a trend, you may already be behind the curve.

Better to watch and analyze true job growth and where it’s happening!

 

Water

There is a misguided perception that we have a world water shortage. However, as a long-time Sonoran Desert dweller, I can tell you that you don’t conserve water in the Northeast to relieve drought conditions in the Southwest. There are however, regional and local water shortages and droughts. It is imperative that we do not needlessly pollute the local and regional water supplies where we live. There is a big movement to “eat local” so that fresh food is available in your region without being trucked in at further expense. It stands to reason that you would not want your local food being polluted by your own water supply.  Be aware of what’s upstream in your watershed. I used to love poring over U.S. Geological Survey maps as a hiker. Always good to know the lay of the land where you live. Is common sense being utilized to make sure that you even have a water supply to produce food? This is the top basic function of local governments. What happens in the future if people upstream cut off your water supply? What happens if you live in an area with an inadequate water supply? Are current assumptions about water still valid?   El Nino may be expected this year, creating or exacerbating new areas of drought conditions. If you are buying investment property in Arizona, make sure you have access to an assured water supply.

A great summer project for kids would be making rain barrels and growing fresh veggies. In the future, this may be even more important to your health and the well-being of your family’s environment, including all your local flora and fauna.

Being Choosy

After digesting the financial news lately, I wonder if people will have to choose between being able to pay their bills/taxes and having children?

All of these new taxes have stealthily crept up on people who have decided to become full-fledged members of civil society, complete with kids, jobs, bills….and now they’re facing a future where the rules of the game changed midstream. A general undercurrent I am hearing is that people are tiring of it or they’re just in denial that they’ve been had. Happy talk, no negativity, all of that is good because we are all going to need as much good health, friendship and serenity as we can find.

However, there are certain laws and regulations in the real estate and financial industries which are likely to cause a complete collapse in the those industries. More on that later.

Facts

It is often said that you can’t choose your facts, just their interpretation. There is probably no point in trying to convince somebody they are mis-interpreting a fact. Which is why our society is so polarized.  They may believe that what they are saying is a fact! (Sometimes the only thing that’s a fact is the fact  they are talking!) Just because you say something is a fact and repeat it over and over does not make it so. But facts are the same the world over. They don’t require belief to be true.  Try to keep an open mind and ask yourself if someone is asking you to suspend disbelief in a very important matter, is what they’re telling you based upon a true fact or are they engaged in some type of manipulation? What’s in it for them?

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