Tag: Risk

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Private Listing Wars

Since the end of February, 2026, a buyer searching on Zillow may not see all properties available. This was made possible by all of the brokerages touting their own private listings platforms, including one on Zillow. During the time on the private listing sites, the listing agent typically receives all buyer leads. This is not about Compass, it’s about a fundamental change to the real estate industry.

It appears that sellers are not getting all the information they need to make the best decisions. These are NOT all homes that require painting….brokers/agents appear to be making every effort to “double-dip” commissions, rather than fulfilling their fiduciary duties to their sellers.

The MLS is no longer the first depository of listing information.

Zillow Research did an independent study of 2.72 million home sale transactions in 2023 and 2024. Key findings were that sellers who list off-mls or limit pre-market exposure see a sale price difference of 1.5% to 3.7% compared to properties sold through MLS starting on day 1.

Bright MLS also conducted a study including 100,000 listings in their service area between September 2024 and February 2025. Pre-market/private listings took a median of 37 days to reach contract vs. 20 days for listings that published on MLS on day 1.

I don’t have a private listing promotion. I have a full market promotion, with everyone getting exposure to your listing on day 1. This is the competition that produces the highest sale price in the least amount of time. This is about integrity. I present the benefits and the drawbacks to my clients to avoid “steering” them into a decision. My sellers make the best choice for themselves.

A buyer may see a “coming soon” listing on Zillow and get very excited – they may have found their dream home – only to get routed to the listing agent and told they can’t make an appointment to see the home. That is not seller protection, nor is it price optimization. It’s self-serving lead capture. Those buyers may have been pre-approved, looking for months, and very motivated. Most won’t wait. They’ll go buy something else. How is that in the seller’s interest? Inventory in most markets in Florida and Arizona is increasing. They have more choices now.

Coming Soon status only makes sense when repairs are in progress and the home isn’t ready to show.

I’m a broker who knows where the property you’re looking for lives. In this fragmented marketplace, buyers now need a true professional who can find the property they want (assuming it exists!) I have access to ALL built properties that may or may not be on the market in a way discoverable by the public.

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Rental Trends

Apartment List reports rents down 0.2% month over month and 1.4% year over year, vacancies at a record 7.3%, and lease-up times hitting 41 days nationwide. 

Overall rent trends 
● The national median rent fell 0.2% month over month in January and now stands at $1,353. 
● January marked the sixth consecutive month of rent declines and the fourth straight winter with a pronounced seasonal dip. 
● National rents are down 1.4% year over year, extending a stretch of slightly negative annual rent growth that has lasted more than two years. 
● The national median rent has fallen 6.2% from its 2022 peak, reflecting a sustained correction following the pandemic-era surge. 

Monthly and annual rent changes 
● Rent declines continued but moderated compared to prior months.
○ Month-over-month comparison:
■ January 2026: -0.2% 
■ January 2025: -0.1% 
○ Year-over-year comparison:
■ January 2026: -1.4% 
● The -1.4% annual reading is the weakest year-over-year rent growth since August 2023.  ● Despite recent declines, rents remain elevated over the longer term.
○ Current rents are 18% higher than at the end of 2020. 

National rent levels in dollar terms 
● The national median rent is $1,353, down $20 compared to January 2025. 
● Since peaking in mid-2022, median rents have declined by:
○ 5.9% nationally 
○ $89 per month in dollar terms 

Seasonal shifts in rent growth 
● Seasonal patterns have shifted compared to the pre-pandemic norm.
○ Historically, May was the peak month for rent growth. 
○ Over the past three years, March has become the peak month. 
● Rent declines are now beginning earlier in the year.
○ Prices now tend to start falling in August instead of September. 
● Winter slowdowns have been deeper since 2022 due to elevated multifamily suppl

Multifamily vacancy rate 
● The national multifamily vacancy rate now sits at 7.3%. 
● This is the highest vacancy rate recorded by Apartment List since tracking began in 2017. 
● Vacancy pressure reflects a collision between new supply and sluggish demand.
○ Multifamily construction peaked recently but remains elevated relative to historical norms. 

Multifamily construction pipeline 
● New supply remains historically high, even as the construction wave begins to crest.
○ 2024 deliveries: over 600,000 new multifamily units, the highest annual total since 1986. 
○ 2025 deliveries: approximately 500,000 units. 
○ 2026 outlook: fewer units than 2025, but still slightly above the long-run average. 
● Elevated supply continues to limit landlords’ pricing power as the market absorbs new inventory. 

Time on market (list-to-lease) 
● Units now take an average of 41 days to lease after being listed. 
● This represents a new record high for the index.
○ Year-over-year comparison:
■ January 2026: 41 days 
■ January 2025: 37 days 
● Time on market has more than doubled since summer 2021.
○ Summer 2021 average: 18 days 
● Longer lease-up times align with higher vacancies and negative rent growth. 

Geographic rent trends 
● Rent declines are concentrated primarily in the Sun Belt.
○ Of 54 large metros with populations over 1 million:
■ 39 saw month-over-month rent declines. 
■ 32 saw year-over-year rent declines. 
● Southern and Mountain West markets account for most annual rent drops. 
● Many Northeast, Midwest, and select West Coast metros continue to post positive annual growth. 

Metro-level highlights 
● Austin, TX shows the softest rental conditions among large metros.
○ Year-over-year rent change: -6.3% 
○ Decline from 2022 peak: more than -20% 
○ Austin also leads large metros in new-home permitting, underscoring the impact of supply. 
● Other metros with steep declines often overlap with high permitting activity.
○ Examples include Denver, Phoenix, San Antonio, Tampa, and Raleigh. 
● The strongest rent growth is occurring in fewer, more supply-constrained markets.
○ Virginia Beach, VA: +5% year over year, the fastest growth nationally. 
○ San Jose, CA and San Francisco, CA also rank in the top three, supported by AI-driven tech hiring. 
○ Midwest metros such as Chicago, St. Louis, and Minneapolis continue to post steady positive growth. 

Market outlook 
● Multifamily conditions remain soft entering 2026. 
● Negative year-over-year rent growth persists alongside rising vacancies and longer lease-up times. 
● While the construction wave is slowing, demand-side risks remain.
○ Labor market weakness and broader economic uncertainty could prolong absorption of new units. 
● A meaningful shift in rental conditions will depend on whether demand strengthens as supply growth cools. 



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Real Estate in 2026

New real estate terminology: “imputed equity”

Homeowner “feels” their property is still worth more than what a market buyer will pay

Real estate sales are at the lowest level in decades. There is an impasse between prices sellers are listing their properties and what bona fide qualified buyers are willing to pay. There is major frustration in both camps. Some sellers are resisting making their homes more saleable through repairs, paint, decluttering. etc. Buyers are asking for concessions on top of discounted purchase offers.

Just remember, as a buyer, LOCATION should be your major criteria, since this cannot be changed. A great property location is always salable no matter the market conditions.

Buyers can still get “climate info” on properties through 1st Street and Redfin to make sure they’re aware of all the possible risks of a particular property before even considering it for purchase. Buyers are well advised to get confirmation of their potential insurance costs before submitting a purchase offer.

What is the CMT Paradox & Why Should Sellers Care? Clutter, Money & Time. Think of it this way: Almost everything is junk & will end up in a landfill at some point. How can you live better right now? If your home is being sold, do you really want to move everything? Clearing it out so your potential buyers can “move themselves in” and imagine how they would live in the property gives you “first impression” advantages that are subliminal as soon as a potential buyer walks in!

Think utility more than status when purchasing a home. How will you live in the home? Connection, comfort & convenience may need to become your top homeownership priorities.

Oh, and remember, in either Arizona or Florida, you can eat outside in the winter!

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2026 Florida Condos Situation

Florida Senate Bill 4D enacted May 26, 2022 on Building Safety called for MIs (mandated inspections) & SIRS (Structural Integrity Reserve Studies) for condo buildings and the disclosures of those results. Link below is the DBPR’s online database of those condos who have submitted their SIRS.

Condo buildings in Florida that were more than 30 years old (in 2022) faced a December 31, 2024 deadline for a mandatory “milestone inspection.” For condo buildings turning 30 years old between 2022 & 2024, the deadline was December 31, 2025.

https://dbpr-publicrecords.myfloridalicense.com/qpr/single/?appid=14f1ed21-7b21-4272-af14-9eaad7911440&sheet=mcprvJW&opt=ctxmenu&select=clearall

So, as of January 1, 2026, the inspection & reserve study deadline has passed. It required FULL RSERVE FUNDING. There was a 365 day Phase 2 repair clock for any immediate repairs required by Milestone Inspections. That is a non-negotiable. The Florida Legislature has not enacted any further extensions for compliance. These condo associations must now pay for their immediate repairs, as well as future reserves (as indicated by their SIRS.)

If a condo building is out of compliance, the local building officials are now in charge. This is a substantial issue. If a condo building is out of compliance, the local building officials may declare the building as an “UNSAFE STRUCTURE” (“unsafe and unfit for occupation”) which is an IMMEDIATE SAFETY EVACUATION that gives occupants “NOTICE TO VACATE” orders. That means the unit is uninhabitable almost overnight. (House Bill 913.) This can be done without any court proceedings. It’s not like a foreclosure situation where you have time to figure it out. The local building officials can “red tag” a building.

If this happens to your condo building you will have trouble securing insurance for the building. If you do not have insurance, any owners with mortgages will be in default technically. Carriers are refusing to renew policies where they deem there has been no repairs progress on the milestone reports. If your association thought they could buy some time, they were wrong.

If you’re shopping for a condo now, be sure you are using an agent who understands these issues to advise you.

A condo may already be in violation. Associations with 25+ units MUST post their milestone reports online,

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Our Transaction Policies

We send a notice to anyone who wants to utilize our services to sell their property BEFORE we will even consider an employment agreement, particularly for sales of vacant land. These policies have become necessary in a global economy, where scammers can be located anywhere on the planet. Out of our legal jurisdiction. So you’d get an e-mail that looks like this:

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Dear [Customer Name]:

We are looking forward to working with you to sell your property.

As part of our company policies (in accordance with licensing law & regulations duties) we ask you to review our policies listed below and reply to to this communication with the statement, “I agree.”

We are unable to list any property unless you first agree to these terms:

We will be conducting an exhaustive title search to confirm the rightful ownership of the property at the cost of the seller.

We require a copy of the seller’s latest property tax bill and the most recent proof of payment.

We require an in-person meeting or video conference with all sellers.

A “For Sale” sign with our contact information must be posted on every property we list, including the name of our listing agent and a phone number where we can be reached (unless prohibited by law or HOA or Condo Assn.)

We require all clients use one of our approved notaries public. If you are located out of our immediate area, we will provide a list of approved Notaries Public to you.

All transactions are subject to a minimum 48 hour hold before funds will be released. If the 48-hour period ends during a holiday or weekend, funds will be released on the next business day.

Sincerely,

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