Actually, the FED doesn’t control mortgage rates, they follow the 10 yr. US Treasury rate. It’s even a possibility that mortgage rates could rise if inflation stays above the FED’s desired rate and/or the job market/unemployment rises to recessionary levels.
One circumstantial indicator of a recession is a sharp decline in residential construction employment. Keep your eye on this one. Right now, new home builders are flush with inventory, offering better interest rates, etc. They are competing with the resale market, so if you are trying to sell your home right now, you may not be in a position to compete with them. The new home builders don’t want to keep large inventories of homes on their books.
